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Showing posts with label hunger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hunger. Show all posts

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Mary Robinson: climate change is a ‘serious issue of human rights’

Last updated on 19 September 2013, 2:22 pm

19 September 2013
Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland, speaks to RTCC about climate justice, the UN, and why climate sceptics make her angry
Pic: Flickr / Open Government Partnership
By Sophie Yeo

Climate justice is a phrase which eludes a neat definition. 
Morally laden and politically controversial, it is used interchangeably to discuss the law, politics and ethics of climate change. Even the most seasoned negotiators may find themselves promoting one of its many meanings over another.

For Mary Robinson, these various meanings are not disconnected concepts, but a jigsaw of related ideas that together create a comprehensive picture of how best to tackle one of the world’s greatest problems: “When we’re talking about climate change, the issue of justice starts with injustice,” she says.

A barrister, a politician, and a top official in the UN, Robinson, now 69, remains best known as the first female president of Ireland – a largely ceremonial role she occupied between 1990 and 1997 through which she strove to influence through the “moral authority” it bestowed on her.
She admits that moral leadership continues to fascinate her, and is something she continues to exercise since became a member of the Elders in 2007, a group of global leaders, brought together by Nelson Mandela, who work together to provide guidance on peace making and human rights.
She was led to the climate debate, she says, not as a scientist or even as an environmentalist, but through her campaign work on human rights.
“I was very struck by the fact that the impacts of climate change are undermining a whole range of human rights: rights to food, safe water and health and education,” she says.
“But it is also displacing people, which is very likely to cause not just human distress but potentially conflict. So for me it’s a very, very serious issue of human rights.”

Mary Robinson with Desmond Tutu, an honorary member of the Elders (Pic: Flickr / Oxfam International)

Throughout her career, Robinson taken many approaches to the fight against injustice. Not satisfied to rely on the influence she wields through the UN, she has also sought to encourage leadership at a grassroots level, and established the Mary Robinson Foundation – Climate Justice, through which she promotes action on a more direct scale than is possible through her other roles.

“There’s good grassroots leadership if only we’d listen to it,” she says. “They are the resilient experts on how to cope with the increasing negative impacts of climate change.

“I’m very struck by the resilience of local communities and the local knowledge that is used, but they don’t have insurance, and the unpredictability is really hurting.”

As a lawyer, trained in her teens and early twenties at Trinity College Dublin and Harvard Law School, she is now advocating for a strong legal framework through which climate policy can be enforced.

The Mary Robinson Foundation has joined forces with the World Resources Institute to put together a declaration on climate change to be published during the week of the United National General Assembly, highlighting issues that need to be addressed to bring about climate justice.

One aspect of the declaration that she says she is particularly pleased about is that it highlights the importance of rule of law.

“There is a need for a strong legal framework to ensure transparency, credibility and effective enforcement of climate and related policy. We firmly believe that legal systems need to protect the most vulnerable,” she says.

As former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Robinson has learnt from experience how to work the system at an international level, and is hopeful that this declaration, put together by former heads of state, climate experts and also representatives of social communities and academia, will prevent the issue of climate justice being drowned out by other concerns.

Equity
She is passionate about the overtly political issue of equity, which is becoming ever more prominent at high level negotiations.

Discussions of equity, or the issue of who should foot the bill for climate change, are particularly prone to slipping into emotive debate, with the wrangling over how the developed countries can best make amends for their historical responsibility for climate change having held up concrete action for years.

But enshrining principles of justice into mutually satisfying financial arrangements is always going to be a troublesome task, and it doesn’t help that the dryly worded UNFCCC definition – “common but differentiated responsibilities and and respective capabilities” – is frustratingly vague, leaving open for interpretation some of the most controversial decisions about what ‘justice’ actually means.

Mary Robinson speaks with a healthcare worker in Somalia (Pic: Flickr / Trocaire)

The difficulties embedded in this definition makes talking about the equity issue problematic, says Robinson.

Developed countries, for instance, who are looking to avoid donating vast sums to other countries, can promote the ‘capability’ aspect of equity over their own ‘responsibility’, suggesting that any country with the ability to do so should take the flak for reducing their own emissions regardless of their historical responsibility for the problem.

Developing economies such as China, on the other hand, will focus on their right to use fossil fuels to develop in the present as the UK and the US have done in the past, and that it is therefore up to these countries to enable them to do so.
Meanwhile, in places such as Gambia, where emissions remain low but climate impacts are already severe, the endless quarrelling over equity can seem little more than a frustrating failure to act.

A practical approach
Despite her concern for the damage already being done to the most vulnerable countries, Robinson is unwilling to let the emotional nature of the problem interfere with her pursuit of the most effective solution. Indeed, she says that her response to climate change in general stems more from “emotional intelligence” than emotion itself.

In the clipped tones of a veteran politician, she says: “Now the emerging countries are responsible for a greater part of the emissions, and developing countries generally emit more than the developed world, so we’ve got a new kind of responsibility, and that’s why I think you can get locked in to the historic responsibility in an unrealistic way.”

But, she adds: “There has to be an acknowledgement of the historic responsibility before people fully appreciate it.”

“It has to be acknowledged, and it has to be addressed in particular by greater commitments by those countries that benefitted in their economic development from fossil fuels – that’s the reality.

“Therefore they have to commit to more serious reductions of emissions because they’re in a position to move more rapidly towards renewable energy.”

The only time when her pragmatic breed of stoicism slips is when the subject of climate deniers arises. It is “hard to be patient” with sceptics, she says, because of the corrupt way in which much of it is funded by fossil fuel lobbies.

“That makes me angry because they’re playing with the future of people in the world, and it’s an injustice that it’s hurting the poorest already and will hurt them most,” she says.

“So I do feel quite angry – not just frustrated, quite angry – at lobbying against the reality. Climate justice keeps faith with science and is based on acknowledging the importance of the true science on this.”

Human rights
She left the UN as High Commissioner for Human Rights in 2002, but has since taken up the role of Special Envoy to the Great Lakes region of Africa, which encompasses the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda and Uganda – countries where conflict and climate stresses are putting human rights on the top of the agenda – on the particular request of Ban Ki-moon
In every country in the Great Lakes, she says, climate shocks are undermining food security, while the population just keeps on rising. But, she adds, the thought processes surrounding the two issues are still not as connected as they could be.

“Governments have agreed in the context of the Human Rights Council that climate change is eroding and undermining the protection of human rights, but this has not been joined up to thinking in the context of the environmental and energy ministers who go to the climate conference,” she says.

“I believe we have to join that up more. That’s where climate justice is helpful, because it’s a link between climate change, development and human rights. We will be working strongly with the Human Rights Council over the coming year to make sure that voice is heard and that we have joined up thinking at government level.”

United Nations
Is it possible to spend so many years in the UN and not be disillusioned by the system, which has so far failed to put a satisfying proposal on the table on how to cut global carbon emissions? “It’s always frustrating,” she says, “and yet the UN has the value that all countries are involved in it, so I have to be patient with a very bureaucratic and sometimes unwieldy system and try to get results.”

Plus, she adds, despite her emphasis on the virtues of grassroots leadership, she still firmly believes that the UN is key to getting the world back on track.

“We can come together under the UN system if we are intelligent about what we want to do, that we want a fair robust climate agreement,” she says, “because we must have an agreement which commits countries to bring us below the 2C warming, which will mean a safe world for generations to come.

“That’s a huge responsibility and we cannot avoid it. We do need the climate agreement to reach that.”

And the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris in 2015 – an event which many look towards as the final deadline for putting a framework in place to reduce global carbon emissions – is an unparalleled opportunity to should this responsibility, she says.

“It’s very rare to have a year like 2015, where the world faces two huge complementary agendas,” she says, referring to the paradigm-shifting replacement of the Millennium Development Goals with a set of Sustainable Development Goals, along with the global commitment to come up with a legally binding agreement that will keep the world below 2C of warming, the temperature considered ‘safe’ by scientists.

“I borrow the words of Desmond Tutu: I’m not an optimist, I’m a prisoner of hope,” she says.

“I’m a grandmother. I think a lot about my four grandchildren. They’ll be in their forties by 2050 and they’ll share the world with nine billion others. I want it to be a safer world than we’re predicting at the moment. I want it to be a world where they can say at least when they got round to it in 2015 they took their responsibilities.

“I don’t want them to say how could they have been so selfish and so stupid that they didn’t see the impacts on us and our children and grandchildren in the future? That’s a preoccupation of mine.

“If by the end of 2015 we have really accepted and understood our responsibilities then I think our grandchildren and their grandchildren will acknowledge that we helped them.”
 
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http://www.rtcc.org/2013/09/19/mary-robinson-climate-change-is-a-serious-issue-of-human-rights#sthash.E27j5Uxb.dpuf

Thursday, July 4, 2013

The past 10 years were the warmest since the start of modern measurements

The past 10 years were the warmest since the start of modern measurements 160 years ago and it was also a decade of unprecedented extremes in the climate according to a report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

Heatwaves in Europe and Russia, hurricane Katrina in the United States, tropical cyclones in South East Asia, droughts in the Amazon, Australia and East Africa and floods in Pakistan were all features of the last decade indicating a shift in the climate, the WMO said.

Both the northern and southern hemispheres experienced the warmest temperatures for both land and sea, puncturing the myth that global warming has ended. At the same time, there was a rapid melting of Arctic sea ice and an acceleration in the loss of ice from the massive ice sheets of Greenland and the Antarctic.

As a result of this widespread melting and the thermal expansion of sea water, global mean sea levels rose about 3 millimetres (mm) per year, about double the observed 20th century trend of 1.6 mm per year. Global sea level averaged over the decade was about 20 cm higher than that of 1880, said the report.

"A decade is the minimum possible timeframe for meaningful assessments of climate change," said Michel Jarraud, the WMO's secretary general.

"WMO's report shows that global warming was significant from 1971 to 2010 and that the decadal rate of increase between 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 was unprecedented.  Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are changing our climate, with far reaching implications for our environment and our oceans, which are absorbing both carbon dioxide and heat," Mr Jarraud said.

The WMO report said atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases continued to rise. Global-average concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to 389 parts per million in 2010, an increase of 39 per cent since the start of the industrial era in 1750.

 

CO2 and Temperature Changes Are Correlated for 800,000 Years

Summary:  Global warming and cooling cycles over geological time scales are correlated with increasing and decreasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, respectively.  This post documents correlated changes occurring  a) during the recent post-industrial period of global warming, b) over the last one thousand years, and c) over the past 800,000 years. 
 
Except for the industrial period, these changes reflect only global physical processes not involving actions by mankind, showing that the greenhouse effect is an established physical phenomenon.  Each geological warming or cooling trend, coupled with its change in carbon dioxide concentration, occurs very slowly, lasting thousands of years.  The current man-made warming trend, in contrast, is occurring at least 60 times faster, and its pace is accelerating.
 
Introduction. The previous post discussed variations over time in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), the major greenhouse gas.  Recent changes in CO2 concentration measured directly since 1958 were contrasted with a slightly broader record, extending back to 1700 CE, and finally with the geologic record of atmospheric CO2 cataloging concentrations as far back as 800,000 years before the present. 
The post summarized the findings as
a)     geological changes in CO2 levels have practically never exceeded 280 ppm, the level that existed just before humanity embarked on the industrial revolution;
b)     on a time scale relevant to human experience and lifetimes geological changes in CO2 levels change extremely slowly, over periods of many thousands of years;
c)     physical properties of atmospheric CO2 today show unequivocally that the excess CO2 that has arisen in the past century comes from burning fossil fuels;
d)     virtually the entire increase in contemporary CO2 levels has resulted in concentrations so high that they have never been found in the geological record for 800,000 years;
e)     contemporary CO2 levels continue to increase unabated and at a rate 60 times or greater than in the geological record; and
f)      the rate of growth of contemporary CO2 levels is accelerating.
Correlation between atmospheric CO2 and temperature today.  CO2, being a greenhouse gas, causes atmospheric temperatures to rise as the gas accumulates in the atmosphere.  Over the span of the industrial revolution the increase in the CO2 concentration and the increase in the long-term global average temperature each follow the same trend with time.  This is seen in the graphic below.

Overlaid curve for annual global average temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  The scale for CO2 concentration runs from about 280 to about 390 parts per million.  The scale for temperature runs from about 13.6 to about 14.6ºC (about 56.5 to about 58.2ºF). 
 
 
The graphic shows that the long-term global average temperature is closely correlated with the CO2 concentration.  (The temperature trend shows many spiky bounces because, in addition to the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, the global temperature responds to other factors in the atmosphere, effects on land and especially effects occurring in the oceans.)

Climate science models show unequivocally that the temperature increase is caused by the additional CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere.

Thousand-Year Correlation.  The CO2-temperature correlation is even more striking when viewed for the time from the year 1000 CE to the present time, shown in the graphic below.

Correlation between CO2 concentration and global average temperature (including geological proxy data) for the period 1000-2000 CE.  For CO2 the blue points are from ice cores and the red points at the right are from direct atmospheric measurements.
 

It is seen that the trends for CO2 concentration and global average temperature follow each other extremely closely over the last 1000 years.  Both are largely unchanged over the period from 1000 to about 1800 CE, then both change in correlated fashion as industrialization began at about that time.  Industrialization depended on burning fossil fuels as a source of energy, a process which did not occur prior to its beginning.  The consequence of industrialization has been the correlated rise in CO2 and global average temperature seen in the two graphics above.

Correlation between atmospheric CO2 and temperature over geologic time scales.  Climate scientists have aligned results obtained from ice cores for atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the last 800,000 years with data for the temperature of the climate for the last 1 million years obtained from temperature proxies in the geological record.  The results are shown in the graphic below.


Atmospheric CO2 concentration (orange line) and estimated global average temperature (navy blue line) from the present (right end of horizontal axis, not including information since industrialization) and as much as 1 million years ago (left end of horizontal axis). 
Source:  Slide 13 in Coursera course on Climate Literacy: Navigating Climate Change Conversations, https://class.coursera.org/climateliteracy-001/lecture/index; based on temperature proxy data in Zachos et al., 2001, Science Vol. 292, p. 686,  as transformed by Hansen and Sato, 2012
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120508_ClimateSensitivity.pdf; and CO2 measurements in Luthi et al., 2008, Nature Vol. 453|doi:10.1038/nature06949. 

 
The graphical presentation of the CO2 concentration above is the same as was shown in the previous post.  It is important to note that each small division on the horizontal axis represents a very long time, 50,000 years.  For example, the minima in both temperature and CO2 at the extreme right on the graph represent the last ice age.

The most important feature of the above graphic is that over the last 800,000 years, an extended time scale, the global average temperature and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 have been highly correlated.  Many of the changes appear abrupt on the compressed time scale shown above. However, in the previous post one example of a sharp change in CO2 concentration was expanded using the original data.  The expanded change for the instance selected, between 128,609 and 135,603 years ago, extends over 7,000 years, and cannot be considered abrupt on the scale that we as humans experience.  Over these 7,000 years the CO2 concentration increased very slowly indeed.

The greenhouse effect from CO2 causes changes in temperature over the millennial time scales shown in the graphic.  Over the entire time period shown the changes in temperature and the changes in CO2 concentration are closely coupled.  In some cases the change in temperature occurs “first” whereas in others the change in CO2 concentration occurs “first”, and on the compressed time scale shown, some changes in temperature and CO2 appear to occur together.  Even if the onset of one of these changes was not caused by a prior change in the other, over the many thousands of years that the increases or the decreases occur, the changes are amplified by positive feedbacks of the processes under way, as explained in the next paragraph, inset below.  Therefore we may conclude that, once an increasing or decreasing trend begins, the greenhouse effect from atmospheric CO2 reinforces that trend.

Over these millennia an “initial” increase in temperature, say, results in lowering the solubility of CO2 in the warmer waters of the oceans.  This releases more CO2 into the atmosphere, amplifying the warming process already under way due to the increased greenhouse effect.  Alternatively, an “initial” decrease in temperature, say, results in raising the solubility of CO2 in the cooler oceans, removing more CO2 from the atmosphere, thus amplifying the cooling process already under way due to the decreased greenhouse effect.  Likewise, an “initial” increase or decrease in CO2 concentration raises or lowers the global average temperature, which amplifies the further release of CO2 from, or increased absorption back into, the waters of the oceans.  These changes in atmospheric CO2 levels amplify the processes already under way.

Conclusions

1.On the time scale that we directly experience as humans, excess injection of CO2 into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels is causing an increase in the long-term global average temperature.

2.During the last one thousand years the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the global average temperature have been tightly correlated.

3.Over geological time scales extending back 800,000 years from the present, the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the global average temperature are highly correlated.

4.For the period represented by industrialization these changes arise primarily because of the greenhouse effect due to mankind’s burning of fossil fuels for energy and creation of other greenhouse-active gases.  For geological time scales the close coupling between temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration shows that the greenhouse effect has operated to affect the temperature of the planet for hundreds of thousands of years, although it occurs at a far slower rate than presently with industrialization.
 

The emission of CO2 since industrialization began has elevated the atmospheric CO2 to levels never seen during the preceding 800,000 years in the geological record.  This is occurring at a rate 60 times or more faster than changes have proceeded in geological cycles.  The pace of adding new CO2 is itself getting faster, as industrialization in developing countries requires burning more and more fossil fuels for energy. 

Global warming is just that, a global problem; once emitted, CO2 becomes distributed in the atmosphere worldwide.  The harmful effects of global warming are widely known and becoming more apparent as time passes.  For this reason nations of the world must work to set aside differences in their perceived interests and reach agreement to limit worldwide emissions, as soon as possible. 


© 2013 Henry Auer