Here is what I learned yesterday:
- Climate change is the greatest public health challenge of the 21st Century.
- We can create climate for health: Reducing, Ready, Resilient
- There are many win-win opportunities to simultaneously improve health and address climate change
- We need faster and more aggressive action to avert catastrophic impacts on our children and grandchildren
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Climate Change is Happening Now
- Warming is unequivocal; most of the warming of the past 50 years is very likely (90%) due to increases in greenhouse gases.
- Warming, plus heat waves, wind patterns, drought, & more
- Physical and biological systems on all continents and in most oceans are already affected by recent climate change.
- Greenhouse gases at unprecedented levels, forcing the climate to change.
- Already committed to more warming (next few decades); choices about emissions effect the longer term more and more. (IPCC2007)
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"Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century... The impacts will be felt all around the world - and not just in some distant future but in our lifetimes and those of our children." -- The Lancet
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- More extreme temps means heat stress and cardiovascular failure
- Sea level rise and saline intrusion will bring forced migrations (mental health impact... anxiety, despair, depression, PTSD)
- Stronger hurricanes & storm surges = fatalities and injuries, mental health issues
- Increased ozone concentrations & diminished air quality = increased asthma, respiratory disease
- Increased pollen & natural air pollutants = increased allergens. (pollen production and concentrations to TRIPLE by 2040)
- More dust = more Valley Fever in California
- Increased precipitation and flooding in some areas = more water, food, and vector-born diseases like malaria, dengue fever, encephalitis, cholera, diarrhea, salmonella, shigella, camphylobacter cryptosporidoiosis.
- Increased droughts and water scarcity, water contamination = threats to water and food security, migration, mental health issues, civil conflict. (Locally, California is drying. We are already seeing less snowpack and earlier snowmelt in the Sierras, which is a huge threat to the state's agriculture sector and our overall economy.)
- Ocean acidification = food insecurity, collapse of whole ecosystems on land as well.
- More frequent wildfires.
- New range of disease vectors.
- Increase in harmful algal blooms = hypoxic dead zones
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THREATS TO SURVIVAL
Climate change threatens the systems on which humans depend for survival.
- Air
- Water
- Food
- Shelter
- Peace/Security/Social Stability
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VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE
Vulnerability:
- Susceptibility to harm
- Exposure to, sensitivity to, ability to cope with or adapt
- Character, magnitude, and rate of climate change
Resilience:
- The capacity to survive, recover from, and even thrive in changing climatic conditions.
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EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
We will see/are seeing increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes, and extreme precipitation events/floods.
Impacts:
- physical injury and death
- hyperthermia & dehydration
- hypothermia
- infectious diseases, water-borne diseases
- displacement
- mental health impacts
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NUMBER OF EXTREME HEAT DAYS WILL INCREASE FOR CALIFONIA
Current and projected temperature extremes for southern California (annual days exceeding 95 degrees F)
City: Current (2013) Projected 2041-2060
Bakersfield 55.3 90.6
Palmdale 6.9 33.4
Redlands 12.3 40.7
Riverside 9.6 34.2
Santa Clarita 8.3 32.7
(Hall, 2013, UCLA LARC)
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The 2003 heat waves in Europe: 70,000 - 80,000 excess deaths
The 2006 California heat wave: 655 excess deaths
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HEAT ADAPTATION & RESILIENCE: Promote community resilience to reduce vulnerability to climate change.
Reduce health inequities:
- Identify populations vulnerable to urban heat islands
- Map heat vulnerability locally (temp, tree cover, surfaces, ozone, fuel poverty.
- Implement policies to protect vulnerable populations
- Cal OSHA Heat Standard
- household energy assistance
Urban heat island mitigation:
- Urban greening
- SGC grants
- Built environment (cool pavement cool roofs, energy efficiency, building codes, incentives)
Reduce baseline exposures:
- Air pollution (expand clean technologies/fuels in ports, rail yards, transportation corridors
- Address cumulative burdens in policies to address GHG emissions
Build Stronger Social Support Networks
- Community-based strategies, resilience groups, transition towns
- Participatory and inclusive climate action planning, integrate into health equity
Need more research on heat acclimatization.
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HIGHER TEMPERATURES WORSEN AIR POLLUTION
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THE CLIMATE PENALTY
- Warmer temps will increase frequency of days with unhealthy levels of ground-level ozone.
- May push O3 concentrations beyond current year-to-year variability; may lengthen the O3 season.
- Possible increase in biogenic emissions of O3 precursors, (eg VOCs); possible increases in lightening NOx production may also be a factor in future O3 changes.
- Bay Area: The sensitivity of ozone to increases in temperature is relatively large compared to other regions in the state, suggesting the Bay Area may be particularly sensitive to climate change (Steiner, Tonse et al. 2006).
WILDFIRE RISK
- Earlier snowmelt, higher temperatures, longer dry periods, longer fire season.
- Changes in vegetation (more poison oak/ivy)
- Ignition potential from lightening
- Human activities biggest factor in ignition risk.
- Increases in the number of large fires statewide, ranging from 58% to 128% by 2085
- Estimated burned area will increase by 57% to 169%
(CEC California Third Climate Assessment 2012)
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RIM FIRE 2013
In Carson City and Douglas County, air quality was so bad that even the healthiest of individuals could be in danger if they spent too much time outdoors.
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POLLEN AND ALLERGIES
Increases in Co2 and temperature can result in increases in pollen and atmospheric pollen concentrations.
- Likely increase in average U.S. pollen counts from 8,455 grains/m3 (2000) to 21,735 grains/m3 (2040).
- Possible doubling of ragweed pollen production by 2100
(CDPH March, 2011)
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DROUGHT
Stephen Chu (Secretary, Dept of Energy)
"...you're looking at a scenario where there's no more agriculture in California. When you lose 70% of your water in the mountains, I don't see how agriculture can continue. California produces 20% of the agriculture in the United States. I don't actually see how they can keep their cities going."
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HEALTH CARE COSTS OF CLIMATE EVENTS (2011? CA?)
Stressor: Premature Deaths: Hospitalizations: Total:
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Ozone pollution 795 4,150 $6,534,642
Heat wave 655 1,620 $5,353,425
Hurricane 144 2,197 $1,392,833
Infectious Disease 24 204 $207,447
River Flooding 2 43 $20,357
Wildfires 69 778 $578,640
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Total: 1,699 6,992 $14,087,344
(Knowlton, Health Affairs 2011)
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AB32 and AIR POLLUTION
- The net effect of all AB 32 measures reduced statewide primarily NOx emissions by 1% and 15% respectively.
- These emissions reductions lower population weighted PM2.5 (particulate matter) concentrations by 6% for California (esp in South Coast Air Basin)
(ZapataC., Climatic Change 2013)
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ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION HEALTH & CLIMATE CO-BENEFITS
Reduced:
- GHG emissions
- Air pollution
- Noise
- Infrastructure costs
- Community severance
- Respiratory disease
- Cardiovascular disease
- Diabetes
- Depression
- Osteoporosis
- Cancer Stress
Increases:
- Physical Activity
- Social capital
Avoidable Increases:
- Bike/ped injuries (avoidable with better bike lanes, corridors, etc...)
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ACTIVE TRANSPORTATION AND HEALTH
A shift in active transport from <5 to 22 minutes/day (2% to 15% mode share) in Bay Area =
- 14% reduction in heart disease, stroke, diabetes
- 6-7% reduction in depression and dementia
- 5% reduction in breast and colon cancer
- Added 9.5 months to life expectancy
- 19% increase in bike/ped injuries
- $1.4 to $22 billion annual Bay Area health cost savings
- >14% reduction in GHG emissions
(Neil Maizlish, AJPH 2011)
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CLIMATE AND HEALTH CO-BENEFITS OF SUSTAINABLE, LOCAL FOOD SYSTEMS
Reductions:
- GHG emissions
- Pesticide use
- Synthetic fertilizer use
- Food miles (air pollution)
- Antibiotic use
- Water pollution
- Soil erosion
- Biodiversity loss
- Meat consumption
- Unsustainable H2o consumption
Reductions:
- Obesity
- Cardiovascular disease
- Cancer (breast, prostate, colorectal)
- Type II diabetes
- Antibiotic resistance
- Pesticide illness
Increases:
- Access to affordable healthy food
- Rural community strength
- Agricultural land preservation
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CLIMATE AND HEALTH CO-BENEFITS OF URBAN GREENING
Increases:
- Places to be active (physical activity)
- Urban food growing (access to healthy foods)
- Neighborhood aesthetics (reduce crime)
- Social networks (support, disaster resilience)
Reductions:
- Heat Island effect
- Energy consumption (lower fuel costs)
- Air pollution
- Storm water run-off (decrease flood & sewage risks)
(Bellows J and Rudolph L. 2007)
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CLIMATE READY AND RESILIENT FOR HEAT AND HEALTH
Buildings:
- Update green building and building energy efficiency standards
Surfaces:
- Expand the use of porous pavements
Urban Greening:
- Trees
- Green/living roofs
- Open space
- Urban streams
Extreme Heat Events:
- Improve Heat-Health Warnings
- Identify vulnerable populations
- Protect the energy grid
- Protect outdoor workers
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ACTION IS URGENT: THE CRITICAL DECADE
"...we have at most 10yrs - not 10 years to decide upon action, but 10 years to alter fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse emissions."
"There is still time but just barely."
-- James Hansen, NASA
"If we don't take action regarding climate change, our future generation will be roasted, toasted, fried, and grilled."
-- Christine Lagarde, Chief IMF
"If there is not action soon, the future will become bleak... My wife and I have two sons... when they grow old, this could be the future they inherit.
-- Dr. Jim Young Kim, President World Bank
ONCE AGAIN....
- CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAPPENING NOW, FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND AT UPPER END OF IPCC SCENARIOS
- IMPACTS HEALTH IN MANY WAYS, DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY
- WILL AFFECT LIFE SYSTEMS ON WHICH WE DEPEND: AIR, WATER, FOOD, SHELTER
- VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES MOST AT RISK (CLIMATE GAP)
- IF WE ACT URGENTLY AND AGGRESSIVELY WE CAN:
* PREVENT THE MOST CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE SCENARIOS
* PROMOTE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES WITH HEALTH CO-BENEFITS
* BUILD RESILIENT COMMUNITIES TO ADAPT BETTER
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Dr. Linda Rudolph, M.D., M.P.H.
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